10137 / 沽10121" />
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一周過去,外圍市況山雨欲來,美股在擔心息口變化及經濟表現等不明朗因素下,納指100開局便連跌多個交易日,港股亦重回17,000點之下,走勢反覆偏軟。
筆者作了個簡單的統計,回看2019年以來美股(標指)的年度表現,看看與每年開局有沒有關聯性。眾所周知,過去表現不反映將來表現,這個統計雖然說不上科學化,但結果卻有一定的趣味性,在此與大家分享一下。
回顧過去五年當中,標指有四個年度都是升市,其中2019及2021錄得近29%及27%的強勁升幅,另於2020及2023年,升幅亦有約16%及24%。無獨有偶,上述的四個年頭中,標指首五個交易日的表現都「清一式」錄得正增長,其中2019年開局便勁升近2.7%。相反,在2022年的大跌市,標指埋單跌了19%,開局首五天錄得1.9%的跌幅。
今年美股開局向下,到底最終是否再出現上述巧合,仍待時間印證。一如上周所述,投資者看錯方向要嚴守止損,亦可考慮以淡倉對沖手持股份的好倉。港股市場上有美股的好淡產品,有助配合投資者兩手準備的部署。
轉個頭看另一美股指數,即去年創歷史新高,反映非金融股為主的納指100,首三個交易日回落近3.2%。投資者如看好納指100可留意認購證10137,行使價18,982點,2024年6月到期,實際槓桿12.1倍;相反如看淡可留意納指100認沽證10121,行使價14,928點,2024年6月到期,實際槓桿9倍。
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