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恒生指數(HSI)近期表現波動,受港股期結日影響,市場情緒顯得謹慎。恒指早盤一度突破24,000點,但隨後急速回落至23,500點關口。市場對科技股的回吐壓力顯著,尤其是近期升幅較大的重磅股如小米,成為拖累指數的主要因素。外圍消息方面,美國眾議院通過減稅及削減開支法案,市場對此反應不一。若看好外圍減稅政策可能帶動環球經濟增長,投資者可考慮中短期的恒指認購證,這類產品通常具有較高的實際槓桿,適合短期看漲的投資者。相反,若認為港股本年以來累積的兩成升幅過多,可能面臨回調壓力,則可考慮恒指認沽證,這類產品適合短期看跌的投資者。
阿里巴巴(9988)股價近期觸碰140港元關口後回落,跌幅一度達到3%。公司近期宣布開源其影片生成大模型萬相2.1,涵蓋多種參數規格的推理代碼和權重,並支援文字及圖片生成影片,顯示其在人工智能領域的技術實力。若看好人工智能的長期發展帶動阿里巴巴股價上升,投資者可考慮價外認購證。價外認購證的行使價高於現價,通常具有較高的槓桿效應,但風險也相對較高,適合對股價有較強上升預期的投資者。若擔憂科技股的回調壓力,則可考慮阿里的認沽證,價外認沽證的行使價低於現價,適合看淡股價的投資者。
小米(1810)股價近期波動較大,早盤一度高見58.7港元,但隨後下跌最多近11%。作為科技股的另一代表,小米的回調或反映出市場對近期升幅的獲利了結情緒。然而,小米即將舉行新品發布會,推出電動車及新款智能手機,市場對其產品的中長期影響抱有期待。若看好小米新品的市場表現,投資者可考慮價外認購證,這類產品的行使價高於現價,槓桿效應較高,適合預期股價將顯著上升的投資者。若認為市場情緒仍偏向謹慎,則可考慮價外認沽證,適合預期股價進一步下跌的投資者。此外,投資者在選擇認股證時需注意「短身」與「長身」的區別。短身認股證的到期日較近,槓桿效應更高,但時間值損耗也更快;長身認股證則到期日較遠,時間值損耗較慢,適合對股價變動有中長期預期的投資者。
港交所(388)公佈的業績顯示,去年純利及收入均創新高,略勝市場預期。單計去年第四季度,純利按年升45%,創歷來第四季度新高。業績公佈後,港交所股價一度上升逾2%。若看好港交所的業績表現,投資者可考慮價外認購證,行使價高於現價,適合預期股價進一步上升的投資者。相反,若擔憂市場整體波動性,則可考慮價外認沽證,行使價低於現價,適合看淡股價的投資者。投資者在選擇認股證時,應根據自身的風險承受能力及市場判斷,並注意槓桿效應與時間值損耗的影響,制定適合的投資策略。
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