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2. 窩輪價格影響因素解析

2025-04-01Article
Article


2. 窩輪價格影響因素解析

窩輪(認股證)是一種槓桿式的衍生金融工具,為投資者提供了參與市場波動的靈活方式。其價格受多種因素影響,包括行使價、相關資產的價格及其價格波幅、到期前的剩餘時間、利率及股息預期、相關資產的流通性、街貨量供求因素、換股比率等。投資者在選擇窩輪時,需深入了解這些影響因素,以制定相應的投資策略。 首先,行使價是指投資者可以按此價格買入或賣出相關資產的價格。當相關資產價格高於認購證行使價(或低於認沽證行使價)時,兩者的差價便是窩輪的內在值。兩者差價逾大,窩輪的價格也會相對較高。 市場波動性反映市場對相關資產未來價格變動幅度的預期,通常以引伸波幅(Implied Volatility)來衡量。當市場預期波動性增加時,引伸波幅上升,在其他因素不變下,窩輪價格也會隨之上漲;反之,當引伸波幅下降時,窩輪價格可能下跌。例如,恒指波幅指數(VHSI)是一個常用的市場波動性指標。若VHSI從14%升至27%,這意味著市場對恒指未來波動性的預期大幅提高,相關窩輪的價格也可能因波幅上升而提高。對於投資者而言,選擇波幅較低時入場的窩輪,能在波幅上升時獲得更高的潛在回報。然而,波動性對窩輪價格的影響並非單向的。若市場波動性下降,窩輪價格可能因引伸波幅的回落而受損。這對於短期投資者尤其重要,因為波幅的變化可能在短時間內對窩輪價格產生顯著影響。 到期前的剩餘時間是影響窩輪價的因素之一。隨著到期日臨近,時間值會逐漸減少,最終歸零。時間值損耗在到期日前的最後幾周尤為顯著,因此短期窩輪的風險亦普遍較高。時間值的損耗速度取決於窩輪的到期前的剩餘時間和市場波動性。剩餘時間較長的窩輪,雖仍有時間值損耗,但損耗的速度較短期窩輪慢,適合中長線投資;而短期窩輪則更適合短線投資者。投資者在選擇窩輪時,應根據投資目標選擇相應的年期,並密切關注時間值的變化。 另外,利率及股息預期亦會對輪證產生影響。一般而言,利率上升,在其他因素不變下,通常會提升認購證的價值,而對認沽證的影響則負面。同時,如果掛鈎資產預期將發放較高的股息,在其他因素不變下,通常會降低認購證的價值,而對認沽證的影響則正面。 掛鈎資產的流通性方面,流通性較好的掛鈎資產,其價格信息更加透明,交易成本較低,因此相關窩輪的買賣價差也一般較為窄。 街貨量供求因素而言,街貨量是指市場上可供交易的窩輪數量。倘某輪證的市場流通量偏高,價格則可能被推升。 換股比率是指每單位窩輪可兌換的相關資產數量,例如以「1:100」或「1:10,000」的形式表示。換股比率對窩輪的影響主要體現在輪價對正股的跳動敏感度上。換股比率越低,價格對相關資產價格變動的敏感度也越大。但同樣條款下, 較高的換股比率帶來較低的每股輪價, 但留意換股比率並不影響實際槓桿。 投資者在選擇窩輪時,需充分了解這些影響因素,以制定相應的投資策略。只有在謹慎評估風險的基礎上,才能真正發揮窩輪的槓桿效應,實現潛在回報的最大化。

Check point:

以下哪一項不是影響窩輪價格的主要因素?

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